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🧙♂️ Bayes Theorem Learning Lab 🧮
Transform static formulas into intuitive understanding
🧮 Formula Explorer
🎯 Interactive Demo
📊 Real Examples
🧠 Quiz Mode
Parameter Controls
Prior Probability P(A): 1.0%
Likelihood P(B|A): 95.0%
Evidence P(B): 5.94%
(Auto-calculated with 5% false positive rate)
🔄 Reset to Medical Example
Bayes' Formula
P(A|B) =
P(B|A)
0.950
×
P(A)
0.010
P(B)
0.059
Posterior Probability
15.99%
Probability of A given evidence B
2×2 Contingency Table
B True
B False
A True
0.9%
0.1%
A False
5.0%
94.1%
Population of 100 People
Has A
Has B
Has A given B
💡 Insights
• Base rate: 1.0% of population has condition A
• Test accuracy: 95.0% sensitivity
• If you test positive, there's a 16.0% chance you have A
⚠️ Even with a positive test, A is more likely absent due to low base rate!